Key Features:

- No of Pages: 37

- No of Chapters: 5

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Introduction:

Abstract

Abtract

This project work is basically on the application of time series analysis on the monthly consumption of water and to examine the factors underlying the consumption rate of water. Statistical analysis on

monthly consumption of water support can only be know if there is only one source water supply and it is observed that consumers of water have no confidence on service renders by the Niger State Urban Water Board due to their poor performance and inefficient co – ordination of water supply.

Table of Content

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page i

Certification ii

Dedication iii

Acknowledgement iv

Table of content v

Abstract vi



CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction 1

1.1 Background to the study 1

1.2 Statement of problem 2

1.3 Purpose of the study 3

1.4 Hypothesis of the study 4

1.5 Significance of the study 5

1.6 Scope and delimitation 5

1.7 Definition of term 6



CHAPTER TWO

2.0 literature review 7



CHAPTER THREE

3.0 The Analysis of Time Series 10

3.1 The characteristics Movement of Time Series 10

3.2 Models of Time Series 12

3.3 Estimation of Seasonal Variation 13

3.4 Deseasonalisation of Data 14

3.5 Estimation of trend 14

3.6 Exponential smoothing 17

3.7 Z – chart 18

3.8 Forecasting 18



CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 Analysis of Data 19

4.1 Presentation of Raw Data 19

4.2 Method of Least Square 21

4.3 Additive Model 25

4.4 Deseasonalisation of Data 26



CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 Summary of findings, conclusion and recommendation 29

5.1 Summary of findings 29

5.2 Conclusion 29

5.3 Recommendation 30

Introduction

The Niger State Urban Water Board covers the township of Suleja and the state Capital of Minna as well as Bida. Where on the map of Niger State you will see the geographical locations of Suleja, Minna and Bida with the state.

The Suleja total population was 53, 960 in 1987. The major source of water supply was a low – head weir at IKU River with a storage capacity of one million cubic meters, which was inadequate to meet the water demand of the township. The majority (76.4%) of the households. Was served by sewage pit latrine facilities. Only 15.6% of the household were using waterborne sewerage systems of individual septic tank and soakaway facilities while the remainder (8%) had no toilet facilities at all. The Niger State Urban Water Board was aimed to satisfy the total waster demand of Suleja up to year 2013. This total demand was estimated at 79.732 m3/d of which 47, 744 m3/d were for domestic consumption while the remainder was assumed to cover the commercial and industrial needs.

The Minna total population was 200, 000 in 1989 with a total water demand of 32, 200 m3/d. the installed capacity of the existing water works was 30,375 m3/d, however, it was estimated that the total output from the works could only be about 50% of the installed capacity owing to deterioration of plant and equipment. It was also estimated that 65.2% of the households were dependent on pit latrines for faecal disposal. A little less than 6% were dependent on bucket latrines. Only 13% of the households had waterborne sanitary facilities. The balance of 16% of the households did not have any toilet facilities within the compound. Under this project, the total capacity of water works was planned to be 70,000 m3/d including the new additional 40, 000 m3/d to meet the demand for up to year 2001. To assist the Government to determine the long – term demand.