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2018 WAEC Government Theory (a) Define opinion polls. (b). state any four factors that make the conduct of opinion poll...

Government
WAEC 2018

(a) Define opinion polls.

(b). state any four factors that make the conduct of opinion poll unreliable in West Africa

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Explanation

a. Opinion poll; Is a scientific method of measuring views, opinions, and choices of the people based on prediction of social, political and economic issues facing a state. E.g. Popularity of a government or predicting election results.

b. Conducting reliable opinion polls in West Africa can be challenging due to various factors that affect the accuracy and credibility of the results. These factors include:

1. Lack of Expertise Knowledge by Officials Conducting the Polls: Many polls in West Africa are conducted by officials who may lack the necessary training and expertise in survey methodology, data collection and analysis. This lack of knowledge can lead to errors in the polling process.

Expensive Reliable Methods: Implementing reliable polling methods that produce accurate results can be costly. In West Africa, the financial constraints of many polling organisations often lead to the use of cheaper, less reliable methods and this can compromise the quality of the data collected.

3. High Level of Illiteracy and Ignorance Among the People: High levels of illiteracy and ignorance can hinder respondents' understanding of survey questions which can lead to inaccurate or uninformed responses. This issue is particularly prevalent in rural areas, where educational levels are generally lower.

4. Problems of Analysing Statistical Data/Poor Knowledge of Statistical Analysis: Even when data is collected, the lack of expertise in statistical analysis can result in errors in interpreting the data. Without proper analysis, the poll results may not accurately reflect public opinion.

5. Lack of Objectivity Among Respondents/Interviewees: Respondents may lack objectivity and provide answers they think are socially desirable rather than their true opinions. This can make the result of the poll less reliable. 

6. People Get Scared of Being Interviewed: In regions where political repression or fear of retaliation is prevalent, people may be afraid to participate in polls or may provide dishonest answers to protect themselves. This fear can lead to biased or incomplete data.

7. Poor Communication Network: In many parts of West Africa, especially rural areas, communication networks are underdeveloped. This makes it difficult to reach a representative sample of the population. This limits the scope and accuracy of opinion polls.

8. Lack of Objectivity Among the Pollsters: Pollsters themselves may lack objectivity, either intentionally or unintentionally influencing the results to align with personal biases or the interests of those funding the poll. This compromises the integrity of the polling process.

9. Poor Funding of Polls: Insufficient funding can lead to the use of inadequate tools, insufficient sample sizes and poor training of field officers. This compromises the accuracy and reliability of the poll results.

10. Poor Knowledge of Instrument Design and Administration: The design and administration of survey instruments, such as questionnaires, require expertise. Inaccurate questions, poor sampling techniques, and improperly structured interviews can lead to misleading or incomplete data.

11. Principle of Confidentiality in the Civil and Public Service: The principle of confidentiality in civil and public services can hinder the collection of truthful and comprehensive data, especially on sensitive issues. Civil servants may withhold information or provide false data to protect their jobs or avoid political repercussions.

12. Falsification of Information/Data by Both Sources and Data Collectors: Both respondents and data collectors may falsify information, either due to fear, political pressure or financial incentives. This leads to inaccurate data being recorded and this compromises the reliability of the poll.

13. Nature of Government (e.g., Military/Civilian): The type of government in power can influence the conduct of opinion polls. In military or authoritarian regimes, there may be restrictions on freedom of speech and expression and this leads to biased or incomplete responses. In contrast, civilian governments may provide more freedom for honest opinions, but political pressures can still exist.


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